Spend More Time Staring at the Clouds:
Here is a graph of solar radiation sincewhen sunspots were first recorded. The brown line is the solar radiation, and it peaks every 11 years or so because of the sunspot cycle.
We put an year smoother through it to give us the red line, which shows the trends in solar radiation. The recent fall in TSI is the steepest and one of the largest ever recorded records go back to It makes very little difference. Compare the new graph to the original here. There have been three big, steep falls in solar radiation in the last years.
The first was in the s. This was the coldest period during the last years. There used to be fairs on the ice in the Thames River in London, because it would freeze over for weeks at a time.
The second fall is around the time of Napoleon and it preceded the second coldest period in the last years, called the Dalton Minimum. The third fall occurred recently, starting in about The delay is most likely 11 years, though definitely between 10 and 20 years.
Eleven years after issuggesting the cooling will start in However, 11 years is only the average delay, and the physical interpretation of the delay see Post IV suggests the delay is actually the length of the solar cycle—which has Trait theory and steve jobs from 8 to 14 years, but averages 11 years.
The current solar cycle is a long one, probably running around 13 years: So the cooling is most likely to begin in The delay could be as much as 20 years, in which case the drop could be as late as Or it could occur as soon as An El Nino or La Nina could affect the timing too.
But by the end of seems fairly likely. Notice that so far we have only applied our physical understanding of the delay, and its implication of a powerful solar influence that is signaled by changes in solar radiation but acts after a period of time equal to the delay.
For that we turn to the notch-delay solar model, which hindcasts the last years of temperatures reasonably well simply from the total solar irradiance TSI.
This model was developed earlier in this series of blog posts; see here for an overview and links. The effect on temperatures of changes in force X is 10 to 20 times as great as the immediate effect of changes in solar radiation see Post VI.
Force X works by modulating the albedo of the Earth, or the amount of solar radiation reflected straight back out to space without changing the heat of the planet, by clouds and ice and so on. This could be through UV, magnetic field effects, solar wind, or some form of electrical field.
Force X lags TSI by half of a full solar cycle of 22 years, which is to say, by 11 years on average. Therefore the changes in solar radiation over the last 11 years tell us what force X is going to do soon.
Climate model driven only by solar radiation, with no warming due to carbon dioxide. See Post VII for explanation.
Predictions shown by dotted lines. This instance of the notch-delay solar model used a constant delay of Again, there is little difference, compared to the original.
If the temperature on Earth is entirely controlled by solar effects, the cooling will return us to the temperature levels of the s or even the s, undoing the last 50 or years of global warming in just a few short years.
The temperature data from land thermometers from to may have exaggerated past temperature rises. The solar model here trained on that data so it may be too sensitive, in which case the imminent cooling will not be as large as shown in absolute terms. At least a small portion of the recent global warming was due to rising carbon dioxide, so the fall will not be as large as shown in Figure 2.
So we cannot tell the models apart on recent performance. However, over the next 10 years the theories strongly diverge.
Carbon dioxide levels will continue to rise at much the same rate, so the carbon dioxide models predict warming over the next decade of about 0. Owing to the fall in solar radiation from aroundand making allowance for rising carbon dioxide, the notch-delay solar model predicts cooling of 0.
Comparing the CO2and solar models. They show general agreement from tobecause carbon dioxide and solar radiation levels were generally rising, but they diverge sharply soon.Competing Against Luck: The Story of Innovation and Customer Choice [Clayton M.
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Dr David Evans, 27 June , David Evans’ Notch-Delay Solar Theory and Model Home. If the Sun mainly controls the temperature on Earth, a turning point is almost upon us. (In the second part of this series of blog posts we will demonstrate that carbon dioxide is responsible for less than 25% of the global warming of the last six decades, so presumably the Sun is mainly responsible.).
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